How tough is it to become a Super Forecaster? A look at Superforecasting by Philip Tetlock and Dan Gardner

Most books I read don’t lead to a recommendation. Some do… but how does Superforcasting fare, and what can we take away from this work?

I’ll be honest, I only picked up this book for two reasons:
1. My primary job is to build prediction algorithms, and I realized its been a while since I read something that really increased my knowledge in this area.
2. Amazon was giving me a 2-for-1 special, and one of the other books on the list was one I was already wanting to read, so this one came along for the ride.

While this book was not recommended to me, nor did it “speak” to me when I saw it, I begrudgingly eventually got around to picking it up. I really had to force myself to begin, but once my other books were done, I had nothing else lined up, so this was as good of a pick as any other.

There’s three real ways to get original research into your head- conduct original research yourself, read Journals, or read books that take someones research and present it in a more readable fashion. If its an area that you absolutely live for, original research and Journals are a great way to go… but if its outside of your core competency and day to day lives, I prefer getting into the books.

The thing about forecasting is that we all do it, and we all need to do it better. Whether its buying a real estate property, where we have to forecast growth and rents… to forecasting economic changes, stock shifts, or one of many other things- forecasting is part of our day-to-day basis. Understanding what you do wrong and what you can do better is helpful. Despite doing it every day, we often fail to think about thinking. This means that despite forecasting, we rarely step back and think about how we forecast.

The same is true about those we trust and follow. Do we follow someone because they are a great forecaster? Or do we follow someone because they are a great pundit- unyielding in their story, and a great storyteller? This is what this book will help you think about. This book will convince you to begin embracing the teachings of Enrico Fermi, but as you near the end you’ll begin realizing that what the author is fighting for is out of your scope and only has a 2.7% chance of happening in the next 5 years (have forecasters scored and evaluated in such a way).

Somehow, this book was a New York Times Best Seller. I think most readers will be bored as all get out honestly. To me this book was very much like an academic journal or an academic textbook. At times it was painful reading, but you KNEW it was good for you, so you made yourself do it anyway.

And ultimately this was my take-away. It was definitely worth the read. You will learn from it. It will improve what you do, but there’s a good chance you won’t love every minute of it. There are times you will want to put the book down, and times you won’t want to pick it back up… but you will grudgingly do so because you know its good for you. You’ll also have to put aside the authors core argument about changing the way the world forecasts, because its out of scope for most readers. You probably won’t be forecasting world events, but rather you’ll be forecasting company sales, or real estate investments. That doesn’t mean the conversation can’t be beneficial though.

In fact this reminded me NOT to make precise forecasts any time someones going to be keeping score, and that is completely against the goals of the author!

So if you are ready to learn something new that a lot of other books don’t cover, and want to get better at something all of us have to do to be successful (after all, stocks- real estate- even CDs are all based on forecasting what is around the corner, right?) – Go pick this one up!

Morning Drive Episode 18 – Become a 401k / IRA Millionaire on $35k a year!

MillionaireWho – Stabilize your wallet, Secure your future, and Succeed! in Entrepreneurship & Finance introduces the weekly audio and video program, “The Morning Drive” with Brooks Fiesinger hosting. Ride with Brooks and discuss what is a 401k or IRA Millionaire, and what it takes to get there. Also discuss how you can get there- and much farther than that- on only $35k a year!

Should you talk about Money with colleagues and friends?

What type of privacy do you deserve in public?

For example, if you are sitting with a group of people in a restaurant, or at a sporting event, and you are talking loudly with your friends… do you get or deserve privacy?

This is an interesting question because I believe many of us are very guilty about listening in to other conversations. In fact often we actively try not to, but unfortunately some people can be SO LOUD you can not NOT listen to them.

While sometimes it can be obnoxious, I unfortunately learn a lot about people when I listen. In general I try not to judge an individual’s actions as much as I notice group’s thoughts. I also know people will at some times “agree” with group think, just to head home with an immense amount of opinionated judgment.
The thing about individuals is we are all different, and using one individual’s thoughts alone does not give you a good judgment of how groups of people think. There are individuals who have just about every possible thought imaginable.

But when you hear groups of people talking about similar things multiple times in multiple places, that gives you some real insight into how larger groups of people think and behave. Therefore my daughter’s sporting events, practices, doctors appointments, checkout lines, sporting events, and many other similar things become great places for opportunistic research.

While the statisticians among you will probably point out the fact that this type of “research” surely isn’t going to stand up to statistical sampling scrutiny, it does offer a great source of information, potential hypotheses, and case studies. They also serve to challenge any presented hypothesis that most people are “doing it right”.

I wish I could stop these conversations and say “Do you realize what you’re saying? Do you realize what this means for your family?”
I also wish I could say “I’m writing about you RIGHT NOW on my blog, you might want to check it out when you’re done”
And I’m not referring to the many conversations about less savory personal details questionable fashion decisions… I’m referring to the plethora of statements talking about “Cost” and “Buying” and “Affording”.

I’m amazed at how often these type of statements come up. In fact I don’t know if most people would have any idea how much they even discuss it. The fact of the matter is that while many people seem to suggest it’s not appropriate to “discuss” finance with friends (which is silly by the way- how else do you learn?), they subconsciously talk about it for hours upon hours a day to many many people. Every time they say “I can’t afford”, “I want to buy”, or “It Cost” you are talking about finance. Complaining that you can’t afford a $20 Leotard and less than 10 seconds later talk about how you got a great deal on a $130 Coach Purse? What is it?

If we are spending hours a day talking to our friends about money and finance… what’s smart to buy, what’s not, what great deals we got and what we have to overpay on, what coupons we found, and how we save, 2nd mortgages, store credits, credit cards, buying cars… all this information… all things that really speak to the negative drawbacks of consumerism, how do we claim talking about doing GOOD things with our money is not a safe topic for friends or public discussion?

The thought process here is ludicrous. We send messages to each other daily… sometimes by the minute. We reinforce to our friends and neighbors that debt is good. Consumerism is good. Spending money we don’t have is good. Buy buy buy. Borrow borrow borrow. Ruin your life. Destroy your kids. Yes this is good, acceptable conversation, but being smart, savvy, protecting our kids, our families, and our society isn’t appropriate?
Please.

We talk about buying because we can’t help ourselves. We see things we want, we lust for things we can’t have, and we can’t stop ourselves from buying. We look to our social interactions to make this OK, to make us feel better about the dumb things we are doing and the hole we are digging.
I was reading a thread on biggerpockets.com , a great resource if you are into real estate, and the question was discussed: “Do you tell your coworkers about your real estate?”. I was surprised how many people said “no”. I made the argument that you should. We have a duty and responsible to help each other, not continually tear each other down by reinforcing bad habits.

There’s not going to be a movement, but do your friends a favor. Talk about the cool smart things you do. Talk about how you save. Talk about how your preparing for the future and generating wealth. Then when they see you living the life they wish they had, it won’t be “luck”, it’ll be because of what you’ve been talking about all along.

It’s not about looking down on people and being judgmental. Don’t look down at people who don’t think like you, but don’t isolate yourself either. I can’t tell you how many people have told me they have shifted their behavior because of me. How many people have told you they started saving, started a business, bought real estate, saved in a 401K or IRA, or did other positive financial moves because of you?

And how many people do you know that bought a purse, bought shoes, tried a restaurant, or bought something else you recommended?

I’ll tell you right now, the most successful people I know have conversations with me regularly about finance, wealth, and money. Most of these people are “uncomfortable” having these conversations with the less successful. Which part of that is causal? How much of this is because many people don’t understand?

Be a positive influence on those around you. You owe it to yourself and to them.

Morning Drive Episode 15 – Picking Credit Cards, Building Credit, Interest & Loans

MillionaireWho – Stabilize your wallet, Secure your future, and Succeed! in Entrepreneurship & Finance introduces the weekly audio and video program, “The Morning Drive” with Brooks Fiesinger hosting. Ride with Brooks and discuss selecting the best credit cards, and the impacts of credit on your life. Learn about how credit impacts interest rates, and how interest works for you, with a deep dive into car loans.